There are four requisites for developing and/or obtaining cutting-edge, future-ready technologies.

First, obtain technology through transfer. No original equipment manufacturer/country will transfer technology in which it invested decades of R&D efforts and tons of money to rectify flaws and to finally derive that refined, efficient military platform unless paid huge offsetting amounts. Yet, rather than start R&D from scratch, some cutting-edge technologies should be bought, imbibed and assimilated internally, and then utilised as a threshold point from where to take off.  

Second, institutions of higher education that produce innovation as well as cerebral, highly-skilled alumni. For this, these institutions should be liberal and free-thinking, not weighed down by political/religious ideologies, and staffed with good faculty. Speaking at the Delhi School of Economics’ Diamond Jubilee in August 2014, Gita Gopinath, First Deputy Managing Director of the IMF, had, inter alia, advised that India’s education system must be revamped. Yet, the NEP notwithstanding, our education system and curriculum remain archaic. The National Employability Report Engineers Annual Report 2019 stated that a large percentage of engineers did not possess enough skills to work in IT companies. The government’s Economic Survey 2024 opines that only 51.25 per cent of India’s graduates are deemed employable, pointing at a wide chasm in skills required for the 21st century.

Third, provide adequate R&D funding. In 2023, the US spent approximately $784 billion on R&D, China $723 billion, Japan $184 billion, Germany $132 billion, the UK $88 billion, and India $71 billion. Companies like Huawei of China and Apple of US spend billions of dollars on research. In contrast, most Indian industries, operating on thin margins, are faced with a Hobson’s choice of maximising profits, expanding into new fields or investing in R&D. They thus need credible R&D funding from the government.

Fourth, an advanced, civil-military industrial base. While India has many islands of tech-industrial excellence, for indigenous production of a system as complex as a fighter aircraft, the derived innovations/technologies need to be further developed and then coalesced within an advanced military-industrial base comprising many disciplines with technological cross-overs within those industries. China’s state-supported civil-military integration model merits a study in this regard.

The critical role of educational institutions, R&D funding and an advanced industrial base in the development of emergent/future-ready technologies is evident from just two reports.

One, the 2021 report by the Office of the US Under Secretary of Defence entitled “A 21st Century Defence Industrial Strategy for America”. This outlines how the US’s edge in innovation and manufacturing has declined since the end of the Cold War on account of decreasing innovation, a decline in educational institutions, a paucity of skilled workers, low R&D investments in high-tech, etc. This tends to validate the claim made to the South China Morning Post in October 2024 by Lu Yongxiang, former vice-chairman of the National People’s Congress, former president of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and director of expert advisory board for “Made in China 2025”, that China will overtake the US in hi-tech and advanced military manufacturing within a decade as “overall, the decline of the US manufacturing industry ….become an irreversible trend.”  

The second is the July 2023 National Security Scorecard by commercial data company Govini. It evaluated 12 technologies critical to national security and found that in all 12, “the USA is falling behind China in the core science.” 

Another reason is that militaries, being large, complex organisations and required to function in high-stakes environments with order, efficiency, and coordination, are often very bureaucratic. This stifles innovation and change by promoting a culture of conformity while emphasising adherence to established norms. General Mark Milley, former Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Eric Schmidt, chairman Special Competitive Studies Project, outline in Foreign Affairs (September/October 2024) “America isn’t Ready for Wars of the Future” because it persists with legacy structures, platforms and doctrines, but has yet to incorporate autonomous weapons, military AI, drones, etc. Nearer home, the US began using armed drones (for example, the Predator, Reaper) from 2002 onwards to kill militants/terrorists in Pakistan’s west — yet, it took nearly 18 years, that is, the 2020 Armenia-Azerbaijan war, for us to truly appreciate and situate the role of UCAVs in modern warfare.   

While DRDO picks up some of the best technical brains from India’s universities, merely knowing science doesn’t automatically translate into advanced, military sub-systems/systems. To truly understand, develop and manufacture such systems, the DRDO also needs scientifically-qualified military personnel with immense combat experience. In contrast, the Indian Navy’s in-house WESEE (Weapons & Electronic Systems Engineering Establishment) has achieved far greater technological success and self-reliance. Perhaps, the IAF too needs to look at a WESEE kind of set-up which cooperates comprehensively with the private sector. 

Presently, the IAF operates 31 combat squadrons against an authorised strength of 42 squadrons, with the 36 4.5-generation Rafale being the most advanced combat jets in its inventory. The air power deficit stands aggravated by an ageing fleet and delays in key indigenous projects, particularly the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), and the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Mk-2, at a time when China already has two variants of fifth-generation fighters in service and is trialling two new sixth-generation fighters, and Pakistan is fast-tracking acquisition of 40 Chinese J-35 stealth fighters. Speaking at the same event as the Air Chief, the DRDO chief Samir Kamat stated that the first prototype of India’s indigenous, fifth-generation AMCA will be rolled out by late 2029, with five out by 2031. The words of the Air Chief, therefore, merit attention. It remains to be seen how we refine our education system, inspire innovation, and develop a military-industrial base with coherent manufacturing strategies that function under an empowered bureaucracy with de facto policymaking capabilities, but bereft of political meddling.

The writer is a retired Brigadier from the Indian Army